ATP tennis predict — Takuya Kumasaka vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · R16 08:05

Predicted probability

Takuya Kumasaka

Japan

32.70%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

67.30%

Average Odds

3.64 / 1.26

Market probability

25.71% / 74.29%

Why This Prediction?

Hayato Matsuoka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1473), a higher Elo rating (1590 vs 1460) and more wins on hard courts (39 vs 24).

Player Comparison

1460.4 Elo 1590.3

1473.4 Elo (surface) 1593.5

24 Wins (Challenger) 40

24 Wins (surface) 39

7 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.150 Dominance ratio 1.088

549 Rank 309

27.8 Age 21.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Takuya Kumasaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

11 matches with market odds since 2026-07-12.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Takuya Kumasaka Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

—

1st Serve Points Won %

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

Aces per Service Game

—

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.8%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.35

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Takuya Kumasaka Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

—

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

—

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

64.6%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Takuya Kumasaka 1 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-12

R16

Hayato Matsuoka #309

Takuya Kumasaka #549

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 3

62 Service Points 44

21 First Serve In 25

15 First Serve Won 22

19 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 1

8 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Hard Matsuyama CH · 2025-11-03

Q2

Takuya Kumasaka #498

Hayato Matsuoka #613

5-7 6-1 7-6(2)

5 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 0

135 Service Points 121

86 First Serve In 96

52 First Serve Won 46

22 Second Serve Won 13

12 Break Points Saved 10

18 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Takuya Kumasaka vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction