ATP tennis predict — Taiyo Yamanaka vs Ryuki Matsuda

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · qualification - round of 16 06:55

Predicted probability

Taiyo Yamanaka

Japan

81.30%

Ryuki Matsuda

Japan

18.70%

Average Odds

2.35 / 1.54

Market probability

39.59% / 60.41%

Why This Prediction?

Taiyo Yamanaka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1515 vs 1319), a higher Elo rating (1509 vs 1327) and a stronger serve (63.2% vs 58.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1508.6 Elo 1326.7

1515.1 Elo (surface) 1319.2

10 Wins (Challenger) 26

10 Wins (surface) 26

9 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.016 Dominance ratio 0.800

830 Rank 764

25.0 Age 26.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Taiyo Yamanaka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Ryuki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-09-13.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taiyo Yamanaka Ryuki Matsuda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

68.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

63.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

44.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

20.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.7%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Taiyo Yamanaka Ryuki Matsuda

Not enough ATP/Grand Slam match history yet.

Break Points Saved %

58.9%

49.3%

Break Points Converted %

43.9%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Taiyo Yamanaka 0 – 0 Ryuki Matsuda

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Ryuki Matsuda #701

Taiyo Yamanaka #840

6-4 6-4

3 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

27 First Serve Won 29

8 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Taiyo Yamanaka vs Ryuki Matsuda — Prediction