ATP tennis predict — Sumit Nagal vs Luka Mikrut

Challenger Clay Braga challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Sumit Nagal

India

23.10%

Luka Mikrut

Croatia

76.90%

Average Odds

3.17 / 1.30

Market probability

29.08% / 70.92%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Mikrut is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1916 vs 1712), a higher Elo rating (1846 vs 1699) and a stronger serve (66.2% vs 58.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1698.9 Elo 1846.1

1711.7 Elo (surface) 1916.0

222 Wins (Challenger) 65

172 Wins (surface) 58

9 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.882 Dominance ratio 1.032

249 Rank 166

29.1 Age 22.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luka Mikrut

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sumit Nagal Luka Mikrut

1st Serve In %

67.2%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.8%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

25.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.6%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sumit Nagal Luka Mikrut

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

18.2%

28.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

53.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sumit Nagal 0 – 1 Luka Mikrut

Clay Braga CH · 2025-09-29

QF

Luka Mikrut #239

Sumit Nagal #289

5-7 6-1 7-6(8)

3 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 3

111 Service Points 100

53 First Serve In 72

38 First Serve Won 45

30 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Sumit Nagal vs Luka Mikrut — Prediction