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Sumit Nagal vs Henrique Rocha — Prediction

Challenger Clay Maia challenger · 1. round 12:00

Predicted probability

Sumit Nagal

India

20.99%

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

79.01%

Average Odds

3.43  /  1.27

Market probability

27.02%  /  72.98%

Why This Prediction?

Henrique Rocha is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1837 vs 1693), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1808 vs 1706) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1692.8 Elo 1836.5
1706.0 Elo (surface) 1807.5
222 Wins (Challenger) 88
172 Wins (surface) 60
8 Last 15 form 11
0 Head-to-head wins 0
0.882 Dominance ratio 1.186
253 Rank 106
29.2 Age 22.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sumit Nagal Henrique Rocha

1st Serve In %

67.2%
61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.8%
68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%
53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%
31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.6%
46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.17
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.4%
66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

62.4%
71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.2%
50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%
39.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.6%
52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.24
0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sumit Nagal Henrique Rocha

Break Points Saved %

52.3%
57.4%

Break Points Converted %

18.2%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.5%
60.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.4%
40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sumit Nagal and Henrique Rocha have never played each other.

Sumit Nagal — Last 10

L L L W L L W W W L

Henrique Rocha — Last 10

W W W W W L W W L W