ATP tennis predict — Sumit Nagal vs Federico Bondioli

Challenger Clay Cordenons challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Sumit Nagal

India

64.75%

Federico Bondioli

Italy

35.25%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.05

Market probability

54.52% / 45.48%

Why This Prediction?

Sumit Nagal is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1713 vs 1580), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1710 vs 1604) and more wins on clay courts (168 vs 32).

Player Comparison

1713.1 Elo 1580.2

1710.3 Elo (surface) 1603.6

218 Wins (Challenger) 33

168 Wins (surface) 32

10 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.103 Dominance ratio 0.919

241 Rank 346

28.9 Age 21.2

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Federico Bondioli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sumit Nagal Federico Bondioli

1st Serve In %

67.2%

69.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

61.8%

63.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.8%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.6%

41.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.17

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.1%

62.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.6%

66.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.9%

34.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.8%

52.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.24

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sumit Nagal Federico Bondioli

Break Points Saved %

52.3%

54.2%

Break Points Converted %

18.2%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.1%

60.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.4%

35.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sumit Nagal 0 – 1 Federico Bondioli

Clay Cordenons challenger · 2026-07-17

QF

Federico Bondioli #346

Sumit Nagal #241

1-6 7-5 6-3

3 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 0

90 Service Points 93

68 First Serve In 67

47 First Serve Won 47

11 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.0 Average Odds 1.7

Clay Naples CH · 2026-03-23

R16

Federico Bondioli #437

Sumit Nagal #278

6-2 4-6 7-5

2 Aces 0

3 Double Faults 5

88 Service Points 107

64 First Serve In 71

41 First Serve Won 43

11 Second Serve Won 13

7 Break Points Saved 9

12 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Sumit Nagal vs Federico Bondioli — Prediction