ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Yoshihito Nishioka

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - round of 16 04:10

Predicted probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

77.78%

Yoshihito Nishioka

Japan

22.22%

Average Odds

1.07 / 8.14

Market probability

88.38% / 11.62%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2014 vs 1802), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1954 vs 1775) and a stronger serve (73.4% vs 63.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2013.6 Elo 1802.1

1954.1 Elo (surface) 1775.1

428 Wins 232

256 Wins (surface) 189

10 Last 15 form 5

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.918 Dominance ratio 1.007

44 Rank 214

28.1 Age 31.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Yoshihito Nishioka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Yoshihito Nishioka

1st Serve In %

60.3%

67.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

29.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.05

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.7%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.2%

65.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.5%

55.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.09

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Yoshihito Nishioka

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

61.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

39.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

55.9%

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

56.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas 1 – 0 Yoshihito Nishioka

Clay Lyon · 2021-05-17

QF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #5

Yoshihito Nishioka #60

6-3 6-4

4 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

48 Service Points 52

37 First Serve In 37

30 First Serve Won 25

10 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Yoshihito Nishioka — Prediction