ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Taylor Fritz

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 07:30

Predicted probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

41.87%

Taylor Fritz

USA

58.13%

Average Odds

2.36 / 1.57

Market probability

39.95% / 60.05%

Why This Prediction?

Taylor Fritz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2031 vs 1971), a higher Elo rating (2113 vs 2030) and a stronger serve (68.9% vs 62.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2030.1 Elo 2113.3

1971.4 Elo (surface) 2031.0

433 Wins 398

261 Wins (surface) 277

10 Last 15 form 10

4 Head-to-head wins 2

0.918 Dominance ratio 1.195

43 Rank 12

28.2 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–4L · 69.2%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Taylor Fritz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 12W–4L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Taylor Fritz

1st Serve In %

56.9%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

80.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.9%

47.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

39.9%

52.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.7%

64.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.2%

80.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.5%

55.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.88

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Taylor Fritz

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

33.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

74.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

42.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas 4 – 2 Taylor Fritz

Hard United Cup · 2026-01-05

QF

Stefanos Tsitsipas #34

Taylor Fritz #9

6-4 7-5

5 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 0

63 Service Points 53

44 First Serve In 32

35 First Serve Won 26

11 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2024-01-15

R16

Taylor Fritz #12

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

7-6(3) 5-7 6-3 6-3

13 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 7

113 Service Points 136

79 First Serve In 86

68 First Serve Won 65

18 Second Serve Won 22

2 Break Points Saved 7

4 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Monte Carlo Masters · 2023-04-10

QF

Taylor Fritz #10

Stefanos Tsitsipas #3

6-2 6-4

3 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 1

45 Service Points 47

25 First Serve In 25

20 First Serve Won 16

14 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2022-01-17

R16

Stefanos Tsitsipas #4

Taylor Fritz #22

4-6 6-4 4-6 6-3 6-4

19 Aces 13

1 Double Faults 4

159 Service Points 136

107 First Serve In 84

85 First Serve Won 66

25 Second Serve Won 29

13 Break Points Saved 2

15 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2019-10-28

R32

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

Taylor Fritz #33

7-6(3) 6-3

13 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 0

60 Service Points 57

38 First Serve In 36

35 First Serve Won 28

14 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Laver Cup · 2019-09-20

RR

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

Taylor Fritz #30

6-2 1-6 [10-7]

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Taylor Fritz — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Last 10

Taylor Fritz — Last 10