ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Rinky Hijikata

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - quarterfinal 03:00

Predicted probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

59.08%

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

40.92%

Average Odds

1.26 / 2.31

Market probability

64.71% / 35.29%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2014 vs 1887), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1954 vs 1833) and a stronger serve (73.4% vs 58.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2013.6 Elo 1886.9

1954.1 Elo (surface) 1833.3

428 Wins 96

256 Wins (surface) 71

10 Last 15 form 7

2 Head-to-head wins 0

0.918 Dominance ratio 1.060

44 Rank 82

28.1 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Rinky Hijikata

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Rinky Hijikata

1st Serve In %

60.3%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.7%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.2%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.5%

47.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

28.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Rinky Hijikata

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

50.9%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

45.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

57.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

54.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas 2 – 0 Rinky Hijikata

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2023-10-02

R64

Stefanos Tsitsipas #6

Rinky Hijikata #75

6-4 6-2

4 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 57

32 First Serve In 29

26 First Serve Won 18

9 Second Serve Won 11

4 Break Points Saved 5

5 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2023-01-16

R64

Stefanos Tsitsipas #4

Rinky Hijikata #169

6-3 6-0 6-2

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

71 Service Points 56

47 First Serve In 34

37 First Serve Won 17

16 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 3