ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca

ATP Hard Montreal · 2. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

52.59%

Joao Fonseca

Brazil

47.41%

Average Odds

2.19 / 1.67

Market probability

43.26% / 56.74%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1853.6 Elo 1798.1

1827.1 Elo (surface) 1774.7

423 Wins 61

251 Wins (surface) 32

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.014 Dominance ratio 1.000

53 Rank 27

28.0 Age 20.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Joao Fonseca

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Joao Fonseca

1st Serve In %

60.3%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

67.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.7%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.2%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.5%

56.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Joao Fonseca

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas 0 – 1 Joao Fonseca

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-05

2. round

Joao Fonseca #27

Stefanos Tsitsipas #53

7-6 7-5

7 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 2

79 Service Points 71

44 First Serve In 47

30 First Serve Won 39

18 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 5

16 Winners 30

30 Unforced Errors 27

1.7 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Davis Cup WG1 R1: GRE vs BRA · 2025-09-13

RR

Joao Fonseca #42

Stefanos Tsitsipas #27

6-4 3-6 7-5

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca — Prediction