ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

39.24%

Arthur Fils

France

60.76%

Average Odds

4.37 / 1.22

Market probability

21.82% / 78.18%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1907 vs 1803), a higher Elo rating (1915 vs 1836) and a better head-to-head record against Stefanos Tsitsipas (5-0).

Player Comparison

1836.1 Elo 1914.6

1803.4 Elo (surface) 1906.9

425 Wins 129

253 Wins (surface) 76

10 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 5

1.014 Dominance ratio 0.854

53 Rank 11

28.0 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Arthur Fils

1st Serve In %

60.3%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.0%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.4%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

45.8%

47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.53

0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.7%

55.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

80.2%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

62.5%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.7%

52.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.81

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Arthur Fils

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

50.0%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.8%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.5%

47.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas 0 – 5 Arthur Fils

Hard US Open · 2026-08-31

1. round

Stefanos Tsitsipas #53

Arthur Fils #11

4-6 7-6 6-1 6-4

14 Aces 10

7 Double Faults 4

146 Service Points 125

81 First Serve In 78

64 First Serve Won 50

27 Second Serve Won 28

5 Break Points Saved 7

8 Break Points Faced 12

51 Winners 38

49 Unforced Errors 37

4.4 Average Odds 1.2

Hard Miami Masters · 2026-03-18

R32

Arthur Fils #31

Stefanos Tsitsipas #51

6-0 6-1

2 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 3

31 Service Points 46

18 First Serve In 23

16 First Serve Won 12

9 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Rome Masters · 2025-05-07

R32

Arthur Fils #14

Stefanos Tsitsipas #19

2-6 6-4 6-2

3 Aces 5

0 Double Faults 4

73 Service Points 76

46 First Serve In 46

29 First Serve Won 32

19 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 0

4 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barcelona · 2025-04-14

QF

Arthur Fils #14

Stefanos Tsitsipas #16

2-0 RET

0 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 1

6 Service Points 10

4 First Serve In 5

3 First Serve Won 2

1 Second Serve Won 1

0 Break Points Saved 1

0 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Basel · 2024-10-21

QF

Arthur Fils #20

Stefanos Tsitsipas #11

7-6(5) 6-3

10 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 2

54 Service Points 73

33 First Serve In 46

29 First Serve Won 37

16 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Antwerp · 2023-10-16

SF

Arthur Fils #38

Stefanos Tsitsipas #7

7-6(5) 7-6(4)

9 Aces 10

1 Double Faults 2

93 Service Points 78

56 First Serve In 54

41 First Serve Won 41

23 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas — Last 10

Arthur Fils — Last 10