ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Yuta Shimizu

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

75.30%

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

24.70%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.95

Market probability

68.60% / 31.40%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Sakellaridis is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1829 vs 1641), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1774 vs 1620) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 59.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1828.6 Elo 1641.3

1773.6 Elo (surface) 1619.9

71 Wins (Challenger) 132

40 Wins (surface) 131

11 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.108 Dominance ratio 1.102

134 Rank 395

22.0 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Yuta Shimizu

1st Serve In %

62.5%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.7%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Yuta Shimizu

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Sakellaridis and Yuta Shimizu have never played each other.

Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Yuta Shimizu — Prediction