ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 10:00

Predicted probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

71.37%

Keegan Smith

USA

28.63%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.21

Market probability

57.85% / 42.15%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Sakellaridis is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1781 vs 1625), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1714 vs 1594) and a stronger return game (36.0% vs 26.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1781.1 Elo 1625.1

1714.4 Elo (surface) 1593.6

71 Wins (Challenger) 108

40 Wins (surface) 98

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.108 Dominance ratio 0.730

135 Rank 202

22.1 Age 28.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

62.0%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

63.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

17.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

40.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

68.5%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

31.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Sakellaridis and Keegan Smith have never played each other.

Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Keegan Smith — Prediction