ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Karl Poling

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · qualification - round of 16 20:30

Predicted probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

74.50%

Karl Poling

USA

25.50%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.26

Market probability

78.17% / 21.83%

Why This Prediction?

Stefanos Sakellaridis is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1712 vs 1521), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1611 vs 1527) and a stronger serve (65.2% vs 59.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1712.0 Elo 1521.3

1610.5 Elo (surface) 1526.6

63 Wins (Challenger) 33

34 Wins (surface) 23

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.969 Dominance ratio 0.922

157 Rank 491

21.9 Age 27.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Karl Poling

1st Serve In %

62.5%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.2%

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.4%

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

32.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.8%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.5%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.7%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Karl Poling

Break Points Saved %

59.1%

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.9%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Sakellaridis 0 – 0 Karl Poling

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Stefanos Sakellaridis #157

Karl Poling #491

3-6 6-3 6-2

20 Aces 1

7 Double Faults 4

83 Service Points 107

48 First Serve In 76

36 First Serve Won 49

22 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 12

5 Break Points Faced 15

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.3

Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Karl Poling — Prediction