ATP tennis predict — Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Juncheng Shang

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Greece

40.31%

Juncheng Shang

China

59.69%

Average Odds

3.39 / 1.29

Market probability

27.56% / 72.44%

Why This Prediction?

Juncheng Shang is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1845 vs 1781), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1759 vs 1714) and more wins on hard courts (55 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1781.1 Elo 1844.9

1714.4 Elo (surface) 1759.0

71 Wins (Challenger) 50

40 Wins (surface) 30

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.108 Dominance ratio 1.053

135 Rank 214

22.1 Age 21.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Juncheng Shang

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-07-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Juncheng Shang

1st Serve In %

62.0%

57.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.9%

62.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.1%

25.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.5%

47.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.4%

67.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.8%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.0%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.5%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.8%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefanos Sakellaridis Juncheng Shang

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

43.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

66.7%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

45.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefanos Sakellaridis and Juncheng Shang have never played each other.

Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Juncheng Shang — Prediction