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Stefano Travaglia vs Matej Dodig — Prediction

Challenger Clay Hagen challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

43.00%

Matej Dodig

Croatia

57.00%

Average Odds

1.74  /  1.85

Market probability

51.53%  /  48.47%

Why This Prediction?

Matej Dodig is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (64.2% vs 60.0% of service points won), a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1622 vs 1599) and fewer double faults per game (0.11 vs 0.12).

Player Comparison

1631.7 Elo 1599.6
1598.6 Elo (surface) 1621.9
266 Wins (Challenger) 73
188 Wins (surface) 53
7 Last 15 form 10
3 Head-to-head wins 0
1.023 Dominance ratio 1.054
140 Rank 257
34.6 Age 21.0
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Travaglia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–5L · 28.6%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Matej Dodig

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Travaglia Matej Dodig

1st Serve In %

56.6%
65.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%
70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%
45.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%
27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%
43.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.57
0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%
64.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.1%
73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%
51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%
24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%
46.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.32
0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Travaglia Matej Dodig

Break Points Saved %

61.4%
61.7%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%
31.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.7%
55.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%
46.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Travaglia 3 – 0 Matej Dodig

Clay Hagen challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Matej Dodig #257

Stefano Travaglia #140

7-5 6-3
3 Aces 4
1 Double Faults 0
70 Service Points 55
46 First Serve In 34
32 First Serve Won 26
10 Second Serve Won 18
8 Break Points Saved 0
10 Break Points Faced 0
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
1.9 Average Odds 1.7
Clay Zadar CH · 2026-03-16

SF

Stefano Travaglia #161

Matej Dodig #214

7-6(3) 6-3
7 Aces 1
0 Double Faults 2
67 Service Points 75
36 First Serve In 56
29 First Serve Won 29
20 Second Serve Won 11
3 Break Points Saved 8
5 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Bergamo CH · 2025-11-17

R32

Stefano Travaglia #207

Matej Dodig #236

6-3 3-6 7-6(4)
7 Aces 11
2 Double Faults 5
75 Service Points 106
44 First Serve In 62
39 First Serve Won 49
19 Second Serve Won 18
1 Break Points Saved 4
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Lisbon CH · 2025-09-22

R32

Stefano Travaglia #239

Matej Dodig #271

6-3 6-3
5 Aces 3
0 Double Faults 3
50 Service Points 69
34 First Serve In 37
27 First Serve Won 25
10 Second Serve Won 12
0 Break Points Saved 9
0 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Stefano Travaglia — Last 10

L L L W L L L L L W

Matej Dodig — Last 10

L W W W W W W W W L