ATP tennis predict — Stefano Travaglia vs Marvin Moeller

Challenger Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

55.19%

Marvin Moeller

Germany

44.81%

Average Odds

1.64 / 2.16

Market probability

56.84% / 43.16%

Why This Prediction?

Stefano Travaglia is the favorite because he has more wins on clay courts (189 vs 50), a stronger serve (63.4% vs 49.9% of service points won) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 35.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1689.6 Elo 1734.3

1659.4 Elo (surface) 1731.3

267 Wins (Challenger) 75

189 Wins (surface) 50

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.008 Dominance ratio 0.881

159 Rank 256

34.7 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Travaglia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marvin Moeller

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Travaglia Marvin Moeller

1st Serve In %

56.6%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

56.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

42.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

28.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

37.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

55.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.1%

73.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Travaglia Marvin Moeller

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

54.5%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

35.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.7%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

39.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Travaglia 0 – 0 Marvin Moeller

Clay Genoa 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Marvin Moeller #256

Stefano Travaglia #159

6-4 4-6 6-2

6 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

31 First Serve Won 39

19 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 4

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Stefano Travaglia vs Marvin Moeller — Prediction