ATP tennis predict — Stefano Travaglia vs Mariano Navone

ATP Clay Bastad · R16

Predicted probability

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

24.35%

Mariano Navone

Argentina

75.65%

Average Odds

4.98 / 1.17

Market probability

19.02% / 80.98%

Why This Prediction?

Mariano Navone is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on clay courts (1823 vs 1598), a higher Elo rating (1782 vs 1634) and a stronger return game (44.9% vs 34.1% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1634.0 Elo 1782.1

1597.7 Elo (surface) 1822.7

84 Wins 60

25 Wins (surface) 48

5 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.958 Dominance ratio 1.175

150 Rank 48

34.6 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Travaglia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mariano Navone

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Travaglia Mariano Navone

1st Serve In %

56.6%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.7%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.7%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.6%

45.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.57

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.9%

70.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.1%

62.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

56.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.0%

37.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.4%

49.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.05

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Travaglia Mariano Navone

Break Points Saved %

61.4%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

38.9%

28.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

50.7%

54.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.7%

50.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Travaglia 0 – 0 Mariano Navone

Clay Bastad · 2026-07-15

R16

Stefano Travaglia #150

Mariano Navone #48

6-4 6-2

3 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

60 Service Points 55

41 First Serve In 41

29 First Serve Won 27

13 Second Serve Won 4

4 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 6

19 Winners 10

29 Unforced Errors 34

5.0 Average Odds 1.2

Stefano Travaglia vs Mariano Navone — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Stefano Travaglia — Last 10

Mariano Navone — Last 10