ATP tennis predict — Stefano Napolitano vs Ugo Blanchet

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:00

Predicted probability

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

50.47%

Ugo Blanchet

France

49.53%

Average Odds

2.27 / 1.56

Market probability

40.73% / 59.27%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1610.2 Elo 1576.2

1620.8 Elo (surface) 1625.4

198 Wins (Challenger) 74

81 Wins (surface) 39

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.882 Dominance ratio 1.050

229 Rank 192

31.4 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Ugo Blanchet

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Ugo Blanchet

1st Serve In %

58.8%

52.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

53.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

23.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

41.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Ugo Blanchet

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

61.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

68.3%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

36.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano 0 – 1 Ugo Blanchet

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Ugo Blanchet #192

Stefano Napolitano #229

6-4 4-6 7-6

10 Aces 12

3 Double Faults 3

125 Service Points 111

69 First Serve In 52

45 First Serve Won 36

30 Second Serve Won 34

12 Break Points Saved 6

16 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Clay Oeiras CH · 2024-04-15

QF

Ugo Blanchet #192

Stefano Napolitano #125

4-6 6-1 6-4

6 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 3

79 Service Points 100

46 First Serve In 65

34 First Serve Won 38

20 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 10

5 Break Points Faced 14

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefano Napolitano vs Ugo Blanchet — Prediction