ATP tennis predict — Stefano Napolitano vs Stefano Travaglia

Challenger Clay Genoa challenger · 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

44.55%

Stefano Travaglia

Italy

55.45%

Average Odds

2.13 / 1.66

Market probability

43.80% / 56.20%

Why This Prediction?

Stefano Travaglia is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1600 vs 1575), a stronger serve (63.4% vs 58.3% of service points won) and better recent form (5 wins in his last 15 matches vs 3).

Player Comparison

1575.4 Elo 1599.6

1581.7 Elo (surface) 1577.3

198 Wins (Challenger) 266

113 Wins (surface) 188

6 Last 15 form 6

3 Head-to-head wins 1

0.848 Dominance ratio 1.067

229 Rank 147

31.4 Age 34.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Stefano Travaglia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Stefano Travaglia

1st Serve In %

58.8%

56.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

50.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Stefano Travaglia

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

61.4%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

38.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

50.7%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano 3 – 1 Stefano Travaglia

Clay Genoa challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Stefano Travaglia #147

Stefano Napolitano #229

6-4 7-5

0 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 9

66 Service Points 67

38 First Serve In 34

23 First Serve Won 30

13 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Roseto Degli Abruzzi CH · 2023-04-16

Q1

Stefano Napolitano #564

Stefano Travaglia #308

6-3 4-6 6-2

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 4

101 Service Points 74

51 First Serve In 42

34 First Serve Won 25

28 Second Serve Won 17

6 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Biella CH · 2018-09-17

SF

Stefano Napolitano #250

Stefano Travaglia #150

6-3 5-7 6-2

5 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 3

107 Service Points 81

69 First Serve In 42

48 First Serve Won 31

18 Second Serve Won 15

8 Break Points Saved 4

12 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Francavilla Al Mare CH · 2017-04-24

R16

Stefano Travaglia #225

Stefano Napolitano #172

6-3 6-4

9 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 1

50 Service Points 60

24 First Serve In 34

19 First Serve Won 22

17 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barletta CH · 2017-04-10

R32

Stefano Napolitano #176

Stefano Travaglia #225

4-6 7-6(6) 7-6(7)

2 Aces 13

2 Double Faults 4

129 Service Points 111

73 First Serve In 59

49 First Serve Won 43

28 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 3

13 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefano Napolitano vs Stefano Travaglia — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano — Last 10

Stefano Travaglia — Last 10