ATP tennis predict — Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie Mcdonald

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

49.73%

Mackenzie Mcdonald

USA

50.27%

Average Odds

3.73 / 1.21

Market probability

24.49% / 75.51%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1598.6 Elo 1583.5

1605.9 Elo (surface) 1582.3

37 Wins 180

14 Wins (surface) 128

4 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.885 Dominance ratio 1.044

229 Rank 144

31.4 Age 31.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Mackenzie Mcdonald

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Mackenzie Mcdonald

1st Serve In %

58.8%

63.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

65.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

32.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Mackenzie Mcdonald

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

54.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

42.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano 0 – 0 Mackenzie Mcdonald

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Mackenzie Mcdonald #146

Stefano Napolitano #228

6-4 7-5

8 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 2

64 Service Points 71

35 First Serve In 39

21 First Serve Won 30

16 Second Serve Won 17

2 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 5

20 Winners 24

18 Unforced Errors 22

1.2 Average Odds 3.7

Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Prediction