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Stefano Napolitano vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Prediction

Challenger Clay Cordenons challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

49.65%

Gonzalo Villanueva

Argentina

50.35%

Average Odds

1.57  /  2.28

Market probability

59.22%  /  40.78%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1649.3 Elo 1625.7
1644.0 Elo (surface) 1640.9
198 Wins (Challenger) 180
113 Wins (surface) 170
10 Last 15 form 12
2 Head-to-head wins 0
0.867 Dominance ratio 1.513
240 Rank 352
31.3 Age 31.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Gonzalo Villanueva

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Gonzalo Villanueva

1st Serve In %

58.8%
58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%
63.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%
44.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%
31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%
50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.43
0.11

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.51

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%
62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%
63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%
57.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%
38.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%
57.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48
0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Gonzalo Villanueva

Break Points Saved %

60.3%
50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%
45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%
57.9%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%
47.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano 2 – 0 Gonzalo Villanueva

Clay Cordenons challenger · 2026-07-17

QF

Gonzalo Villanueva #352

Stefano Napolitano #240

6-3 7-6
0 Aces 2
2 Double Faults 1
27 Service Points 50
16 First Serve In 36
8 First Serve Won 23
5 Second Serve Won 6
1 Break Points Saved 5
3 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
2.3 Average Odds 1.6
Clay Verona CH · 2023-07-24

Q2

Stefano Napolitano #312

Gonzalo Villanueva #497

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4
10 Aces 2
0 Double Faults 0
104 Service Points 113
56 First Serve In 76
42 First Serve Won 44
23 Second Serve Won 17
8 Break Points Saved 5
12 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Trieste CH · 2023-07-17

Q2

Stefano Napolitano #348

Gonzalo Villanueva #498

6-7(5) 6-2 6-3
9 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 1
97 Service Points 95
62 First Serve In 74
45 First Serve Won 46
20 Second Serve Won 9
1 Break Points Saved 3
3 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Stefano Napolitano — Last 10

L W L L L L L L L L

Gonzalo Villanueva — Last 10

L L W L W W W W W L