ATP tennis predict — Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena

Challenger Clay Cordenons challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Stefano Napolitano

Italy

53.67%

Alex Barrena

Argentina

46.33%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.15

Market probability

56.58% / 43.42%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1640.9 Elo 1566.0

1631.6 Elo (surface) 1600.0

197 Wins (Challenger) 75

112 Wins (surface) 75

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.897 Dominance ratio 0.836

240 Rank 245

31.3 Age 23.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefano Napolitano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alex Barrena

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Alex Barrena

1st Serve In %

58.8%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.8%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.9%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.4%

54.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

40.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.4%

38.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.0%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.18

Double Faults per Service Game

0.28

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefano Napolitano Alex Barrena

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.6%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

34.9%

36.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefano Napolitano 0 – 0 Alex Barrena

Clay Cordenons challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Stefano Napolitano #240

Alex Barrena #245

6-4 3-6 7-6

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

97 Service Points 108

60 First Serve In 72

42 First Serve Won 46

22 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Stefano Napolitano vs Alex Barrena — Prediction