ATP tennis predict — Stefan Kozlov vs Roger Pascual Ferra

Challenger Hard Bloomfield Hills challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Stefan Kozlov

USA

77.72%

Roger Pascual Ferra

Spain

22.28%

Average Odds

1.43 / 2.67

Market probability

65.12% / 34.88%

Why This Prediction?

Stefan Kozlov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1700 vs 1534), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1677 vs 1538) and more career match wins (218 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1700.1 Elo 1533.9

1676.9 Elo (surface) 1537.9

218 Wins (Challenger) 3

164 Wins (surface) 3

9 Last 15 form 3

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.130 Dominance ratio 0.986

296 Rank 808

28.5 Age 20.4

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefan Kozlov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Roger Pascual Ferra

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

No market odds recorded for this player yet.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefan Kozlov Roger Pascual Ferra

1st Serve In %

64.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

53.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.12

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

65.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.04

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefan Kozlov Roger Pascual Ferra

Break Points Saved %

49.5%

—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

65.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

55.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefan Kozlov and Roger Pascual Ferra have never played each other.

Stefan Kozlov vs Roger Pascual Ferra — Prediction