ATP tennis predict — Stefan Kozlov vs Mitchell Krueger

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Stefan Kozlov

USA

58.40%

Mitchell Krueger

USA

41.60%

Average Odds

1.82 / 1.88

Market probability

50.81% / 49.19%

Why This Prediction?

Stefan Kozlov is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (45.0% vs 38.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1627.0 Elo 1628.7

1593.2 Elo (surface) 1611.9

220 Wins (Challenger) 227

166 Wins (surface) 176

7 Last 15 form 6

5 Head-to-head wins 4

1.209 Dominance ratio 1.026

294 Rank 381

28.7 Age 32.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefan Kozlov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Mitchell Krueger

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefan Kozlov Mitchell Krueger

1st Serve In %

64.3%

66.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

53.1%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.9%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

40.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.10

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.9%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.5%

72.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

44.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.4%

36.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.8%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.16

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefan Kozlov Mitchell Krueger

Break Points Saved %

49.5%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

56.7%

62.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.1%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefan Kozlov 5 – 4 Mitchell Krueger

Grass Newport CH · 2025-07-07

R32

Mitchell Krueger #164

Stefan Kozlov #367

6-1 3-6 6-1

4 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

75 Service Points 71

45 First Serve In 50

32 First Serve Won 29

16 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Tallahassee CH · 2024-04-15

SF

Mitchell Krueger #277

Stefan Kozlov #515

6-3 3-6 6-1

0 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

71 Service Points 74

49 First Serve In 41

34 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Charlottesville CH · 2022-10-31

R32

Stefan Kozlov #132

Mitchell Krueger #199

7-5 0-6 7-6(1)

4 Aces 5

6 Double Faults 3

98 Service Points 115

65 First Serve In 73

45 First Serve Won 47

12 Second Serve Won 21

2 Break Points Saved 9

7 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Miami Masters · 2022-03-21

Q1

Mitchell Krueger #160

Stefan Kozlov #120

6-2 6-2

1 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 3

45 Service Points 46

28 First Serve In 30

21 First Serve Won 13

9 Second Serve Won 7

2 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Champaign CH · 2021-11-15

QF

Stefan Kozlov #187

Mitchell Krueger #164

6-4 6-4

5 Aces 2

6 Double Faults 3

66 Service Points 61

44 First Serve In 34

30 First Serve Won 18

11 Second Serve Won 16

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Columbus CH · 2021-09-20

R32

Stefan Kozlov #301

Mitchell Krueger #156

6-0 6-3

4 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 2

52 Service Points 54

37 First Serve In 32

28 First Serve Won 19

7 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 6

5 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Orlando CH · 2018-12-31

R32

Stefan Kozlov #316

Mitchell Krueger #228

6-2 5-7 6-3

1 Aces 1

11 Double Faults 6

99 Service Points 85

63 First Serve In 46

45 First Serve Won 30

17 Second Serve Won 16

8 Break Points Saved 6

11 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Sarasota CH · 2018-04-16

R32

Stefan Kozlov #170

Mitchell Krueger #219

6-4 6-3

1 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

70 Service Points 54

43 First Serve In 41

29 First Serve Won 23

14 Second Serve Won 5

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Tallahassee CH · 2017-04-24

QF

Mitchell Krueger #180

Stefan Kozlov #147

6-4 7-5

5 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 6

68 Service Points 69

39 First Serve In 47

33 First Serve Won 27

11 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Stefan Kozlov vs Mitchell Krueger — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Stefan Kozlov — Last 10

Mitchell Krueger — Last 10