ATP tennis predict — Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith

Challenger Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Stefan Kozlov

USA

37.29%

Colton Smith

USA

62.71%

Average Odds

3.19 / 1.30

Market probability

28.95% / 71.05%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1728 vs 1624), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1686 vs 1589) and more aces per game (0.26 vs 0.05).

Player Comparison

1624.1 Elo 1727.6

1589.3 Elo (surface) 1686.4

219 Wins (Challenger) 48

165 Wins (surface) 37

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.209 Dominance ratio 1.047

292 Rank 205

28.6 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Stefan Kozlov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefan Kozlov Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

64.3%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

53.1%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

38.9%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.1%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.12

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

65.7%

60.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.2%

68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.6%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

37.6%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.19

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Stefan Kozlov Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

49.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

42.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Stefan Kozlov 0 – 0 Colton Smith

Hard San Diego 2 challenger · 2026-09-22

1. round

Colton Smith #205

Stefan Kozlov #292

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

16 First Serve Won 21

11 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith — Prediction