ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs Vignesh Gogineni

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - 1. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

82.67%

Vignesh Gogineni

USA

17.33%

Average Odds

1.35 / 2.87

Market probability

68.01% / 31.99%

Why This Prediction?

Spencer Johnson is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1664 vs 1487), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1646 vs 1483) and more career match wins (13 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1664.0 Elo 1487.2

1645.6 Elo (surface) 1482.9

13 Wins (Challenger) 0

13 Wins (surface) 0

10 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.921 Dominance ratio 0.921

451 Rank 759

23.7 Age 23.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Vignesh Gogineni

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Vignesh Gogineni

1st Serve In %

59.0%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

81.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

41.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

60.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

1.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Vignesh Gogineni

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

80.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

55.6%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 0 Vignesh Gogineni

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-13

qualification - 1. round

Spencer Johnson #451

Vignesh Gogineni #759

6-1 6-7 6-1

6 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

52 First Serve Won 26

12 Second Serve Won 24

2 Break Points Saved 5

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Spencer Johnson vs Vignesh Gogineni — Prediction