ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · R16 00:35

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

40.26%

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Japan

59.74%

Average Odds

1.80 / 1.92

Market probability

51.61% / 48.39%

Why This Prediction?

Jay Dylan Hara Friend is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1728 vs 1653), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1723 vs 1664) and more career match wins (26 vs 11).

Player Comparison

1652.9 Elo 1728.5

1663.7 Elo (surface) 1723.1

11 Wins (Challenger) 26

11 Wins (surface) 26

9 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.872 Dominance ratio 1.024

524 Rank 314

23.6 Age 22.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–7L · 53.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1st Serve In %

59.0%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.59

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

65.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

54.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

—

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 1 Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-07

R16

Spencer Johnson #524

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #314

6-3 6-0

5 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 6

50 Service Points 50

28 First Serve In 27

24 First Serve Won 18

13 Second Serve Won 7

1 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.8 Average Odds 1.9

Hard Fairfield CH · 2025-10-06

Q2

Jay Dylan Hara Friend #743

Spencer Johnson #962

6-3 4-6 6-4

6 Aces 5

7 Double Faults 8

109 Service Points 131

76 First Serve In 84

51 First Serve Won 58

19 Second Serve Won 15

12 Break Points Saved 17

14 Break Points Faced 21

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Spencer Johnson vs Jay Dylan Hara Friend — Prediction