ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs J J Wolf

Challenger Hard Lincoln challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

28.54%

J J Wolf

USA

71.46%

Average Odds

2.40 / 1.52

Market probability

38.78% / 61.22%

Why This Prediction?

J J Wolf is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1744 vs 1570), a higher Elo rating (1668 vs 1571) and more wins on hard courts (60 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1571.2 Elo 1668.3

1569.7 Elo (surface) 1743.8

6 Wins (Challenger) 103

6 Wins (surface) 93

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.021 Dominance ratio 1.055

682 Rank 688

23.5 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

J J Wolf

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson J J Wolf

1st Serve In %

59.0%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

53.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

72.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

22.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

50.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson J J Wolf

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

53.3%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 0 J J Wolf

Hard Lincoln challenger · 2026-07-16

R16

Spencer Johnson #682

J J Wolf #688

6-2 6-4

3 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 2

57 Service Points 63

41 First Serve In 38

24 First Serve Won 28

4 Second Serve Won 9

3 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.5

Spencer Johnson vs J J Wolf — Prediction