ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs Erik Arutiunian

Challenger Hard Tiburon challenger · qualification - round of 16 20:30

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

57.89%

Erik Arutiunian

Belarus

42.11%

Average Odds

1.19 / 3.95

Market probability

76.85% / 23.15%

Why This Prediction?

Spencer Johnson is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1681 vs 1581), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1664 vs 1581) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1681.2 Elo 1580.6

1663.9 Elo (surface) 1580.6

14 Wins (Challenger) 17

14 Wins (surface) 17

10 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.921 Dominance ratio 1.098

451 Rank 609

23.7 Age 21.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Erik Arutiunian

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Erik Arutiunian

1st Serve In %

59.0%

53.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

50.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

26.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

58.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

0.43

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Erik Arutiunian

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

40.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

34.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 0 Erik Arutiunian

Hard Tiburon challenger · 2026-09-14

qualification - round of 16

Erik Arutiunian #600

Spencer Johnson #451

7-6 7-6

6 Aces 9

1 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

40 First Serve Won 40

15 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.0 Average Odds 1.2

Spencer Johnson vs Erik Arutiunian — Prediction