ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

52.81%

Cristian Garin

Chile

47.19%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.35

Market probability

60.10% / 39.90%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1686.6 Elo 1772.5

1693.1 Elo (surface) 1659.0

0 Wins 191

0 Wins (surface) 53

0 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.317 Dominance ratio 1.317

445 Rank 137

23.6 Age 30.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Cristian Garin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Cristian Garin

1st Serve In %

59.0%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

53.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

58.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

67.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

38.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Cristian Garin

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 0 Cristian Garin

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Cristian Garin #135

Spencer Johnson #444

7-6 4-6 7-6

8 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 10

124 Service Points 134

75 First Serve In 79

53 First Serve Won 53

24 Second Serve Won 27

8 Break Points Saved 4

12 Break Points Faced 9

40 Winners 39

33 Unforced Errors 36

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin — Prediction