ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs Andres Martin

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · QF 20:00

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

56.91%

Andres Martin

USA

43.09%

Average Odds

1.61 / 2.22

Market probability

57.96% / 42.04%

Why This Prediction?

Spencer Johnson is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1653 vs 1613) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1664 vs 1616).

Player Comparison

1652.9 Elo 1613.3

1663.7 Elo (surface) 1616.4

11 Wins (Challenger) 60

11 Wins (surface) 52

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.872 Dominance ratio 0.987

524 Rank 340

23.6 Age 25.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Andres Martin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Andres Martin

1st Serve In %

59.0%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

64.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

41.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

68.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

44.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

33.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Andres Martin

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

56.0%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

32.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

52.0%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 0 Andres Martin

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Spencer Johnson #524

Andres Martin #340

4-6 7-6 6-3

8 Aces 3

6 Double Faults 3

84 Service Points 112

48 First Serve In 63

34 First Serve Won 42

20 Second Serve Won 22

3 Break Points Saved 6

7 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Spencer Johnson vs Andres Martin — Prediction