ATP tennis predict — Spencer Johnson vs Andre Ilagan

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · SF 21:00

Predicted probability

Spencer Johnson

USA

53.03%

Andre Ilagan

USA

46.97%

Average Odds

1.49 / 2.46

Market probability

62.28% / 37.72%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1721.8 Elo 1703.1

1730.3 Elo (surface) 1690.4

13 Wins (Challenger) 78

13 Wins (surface) 75

10 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.940 Dominance ratio 0.965

524 Rank 243

23.6 Age 25.7

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Spencer Johnson

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Andre Ilagan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–8L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

32 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Andre Ilagan

1st Serve In %

59.0%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.1%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.1%

52.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.3%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

41.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.59

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.6%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.9%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

56.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%

48.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.39

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Spencer Johnson Andre Ilagan

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

33.3%

30.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

53.5%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

34.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Spencer Johnson 0 – 0 Andre Ilagan

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-08

SF

Andre Ilagan #243

Spencer Johnson #524

6-4 6-4

9 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 2

63 Service Points 66

26 First Serve In 46

16 First Serve Won 31

21 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Spencer Johnson vs Andre Ilagan — Prediction