ATP tennis predict — Soon Woo Kwon vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · 1. round 20:00

Predicted probability

Soon Woo Kwon

South Korea

70.83%

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

29.17%

Average Odds

1.31 / 3.14

Market probability

70.56% / 29.44%

Why This Prediction?

Soon Woo Kwon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1768 vs 1601), a higher Elo rating (1767 vs 1654) and a stronger serve (63.8% vs 59.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1767.1 Elo 1653.7

1768.3 Elo (surface) 1601.0

144 Wins (Challenger) 128

134 Wins (surface) 85

12 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.150 Dominance ratio 1.151

152 Rank 112

28.7 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Soon Woo Kwon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Soon Woo Kwon Shintaro Mochizuki

1st Serve In %

56.0%

49.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

46.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

28.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

55.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.5%

56.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

70.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

33.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

60.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Soon Woo Kwon Shintaro Mochizuki

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

80.0%

48.2%

Break Points Converted %

49.0%

42.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Soon Woo Kwon 0 – 0 Shintaro Mochizuki

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-19

1. round

Soon Woo Kwon #152

Shintaro Mochizuki #112

7-5 4-6 6-3

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Soon Woo Kwon vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Prediction