ATP tennis predict — Soon Woo Kwon vs Keegan Smith

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · qualification - round of 16 17:00

Predicted probability

Soon Woo Kwon

South Korea

75.65%

Keegan Smith

USA

24.35%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.48

Market probability

73.42% / 26.58%

Why This Prediction?

Soon Woo Kwon is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1754 vs 1532), a higher Elo rating (1752 vs 1577) and a stronger return game (41.6% vs 26.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1752.3 Elo 1576.7

1754.4 Elo (surface) 1531.5

142 Wins (Challenger) 105

132 Wins (surface) 95

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.166 Dominance ratio 0.733

152 Rank 198

28.7 Age 28.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Soon Woo Kwon

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Keegan Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Soon Woo Kwon Keegan Smith

1st Serve In %

56.0%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

76.3%

75.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

55.6%

61.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.6%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

45.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

53.5%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.4%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.1%

20.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.1%

38.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Soon Woo Kwon Keegan Smith

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

68.4%

Break Points Converted %

40.2%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

80.0%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

49.0%

29.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Soon Woo Kwon 0 – 0 Keegan Smith

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-17

qualification - round of 16

Soon Woo Kwon #152

Keegan Smith #198

4-6 6-3 6-3

7 Aces 11

7 Double Faults 5

89 Service Points 78

48 First Serve In 44

37 First Serve Won 36

24 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Soon Woo Kwon vs Keegan Smith — Prediction