ATP tennis predict — Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Saba Purtseladze

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Japan

47.42%

Saba Purtseladze

Georgia

52.58%

Average Odds

2.60 / 1.44

Market probability

35.64% / 64.36%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1369.0 Elo 1273.5

1383.9 Elo (surface) 1492.0

5 Wins (Challenger) 24

5 Wins (surface) 21

5 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.013 Dominance ratio 0.760

990 Rank 623

26.4 Age 24.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Saba Purtseladze

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shunsuke Nakagawa Saba Purtseladze

1st Serve In %

—

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

22.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.9%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

69.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

43.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

25.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

56.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.46

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shunsuke Nakagawa Saba Purtseladze

Break Points Saved %

—

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

—

24.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shunsuke Nakagawa 0 – 0 Saba Purtseladze

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-26

qualification - 1. round

Shunsuke Nakagawa #1131

Saba Purtseladze #401

7-6 6-3

1 Aces 8

1 Double Faults 6

68 Service Points 72

46 First Serve In 35

34 First Serve Won 24

13 Second Serve Won 21

0 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.6 Average Odds 1.4

Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Saba Purtseladze — Prediction