ATP tennis predict — Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Mirza Basic

Challenger Hard Samsun challenger · qualification - round of 16

Predicted probability

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Japan

25.59%

Mirza Basic

Bosnia and Herzeg.

74.41%

Average Odds

2.92 / 1.37

Market probability

31.93% / 68.07%

Why This Prediction?

Mirza Basic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1573 vs 1396), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1609 vs 1432) and more wins on hard courts (151 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1396.0 Elo 1573.2

1432.0 Elo (surface) 1608.9

6 Wins (Challenger) 215

6 Wins (surface) 151

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.028 Dominance ratio 1.096

1131 Rank 601

26.4 Age 35.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shunsuke Nakagawa

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Mirza Basic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shunsuke Nakagawa Mirza Basic

1st Serve In %

—

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

76.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

64.9%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.8%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.8%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.8%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

42.4%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.25

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shunsuke Nakagawa Mirza Basic

Break Points Saved %

—

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

30.6%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shunsuke Nakagawa 0 – 0 Mirza Basic

Hard Samsun challenger · 2026-07-27

qualification - round of 16

Shunsuke Nakagawa #993

Mirza Basic #609

3-6 6-4 6-4

4 Aces 8

8 Double Faults 5

96 Service Points 86

62 First Serve In 59

44 First Serve Won 40

13 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.9 Average Odds 1.4

Shunsuke Nakagawa vs Mirza Basic — Prediction