ATP tennis predict — Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

ATP Hard Montreal · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

57.54%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Norway

42.46%

Average Odds

1.71 / 2.07

Market probability

54.76% / 45.24%

Why This Prediction?

Sho Shimabukuro is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1718 vs 1568), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1622 vs 1585) and more wins on hard courts (103 vs 29).

Player Comparison

1717.6 Elo 1568.0

1622.3 Elo (surface) 1585.5

38 Wins 22

27 Wins (surface) 10

9 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.996 Dominance ratio 1.409

94 Rank 144

29.0 Age 19.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

1st Serve In %

58.1%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.9%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

58.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

26.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

67.1%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.1%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sho Shimabukuro 0 – 0 Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-01

qualification - 1. round

Sho Shimabukuro #94

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer #144

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 5

61 Service Points 53

32 First Serve In 33

19 First Serve Won 16

15 Second Serve Won 6

7 Break Points Saved 1

11 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Sho Shimabukuro vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction