ATP tennis predict — Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

43.36%

Marin Cilic

Croatia

56.64%

Average Odds

2.10 / 1.73

Market probability

45.17% / 54.83%

Why This Prediction?

Marin Cilic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1785 vs 1635), a higher Elo rating (1788 vs 1725) and a stronger serve (70.2% vs 65.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1725.3 Elo 1787.7

1634.9 Elo (surface) 1785.3

39 Wins 635

28 Wins (surface) 392

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.014 Dominance ratio 0.987

94 Rank 86

29.0 Age 37.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Marin Cilic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Marin Cilic

1st Serve In %

58.1%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.9%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

1.02

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Marin Cilic

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.1%

72.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sho Shimabukuro 0 – 0 Marin Cilic

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Marin Cilic #85

Sho Shimabukuro #94

7-6 6-1

6 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 58

33 First Serve In 30

23 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 20

1 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 4

19 Winners 14

33 Unforced Errors 18

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Sho Shimabukuro vs Marin Cilic — Prediction