ATP tennis predict — Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston

ATP Hard Hangzhou · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

37.52%

Hugo Gaston

France

62.48%

Average Odds

1.95 / 1.83

Market probability

48.41% / 51.59%

Why This Prediction?

Hugo Gaston is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1814 vs 1701), a higher Elo rating (1837 vs 1789) and more wins on hard courts (47 vs 29).

Player Comparison

1788.9 Elo 1837.0

1701.5 Elo (surface) 1813.9

40 Wins 93

29 Wins (surface) 47

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.348 Dominance ratio 1.247

93 Rank 97

29.2 Age 26.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Hugo Gaston

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Hugo Gaston

1st Serve In %

58.1%

54.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.9%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

37.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.20

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Hugo Gaston

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.1%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

37.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sho Shimabukuro 0 – 1 Hugo Gaston

Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

R128

Hugo Gaston #99

Sho Shimabukuro #158

6-2 6-1 7-6(4)

5 Aces 1

1 Double Faults 2

87 Service Points 80

38 First Serve In 32

26 First Serve Won 17

33 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Sho Shimabukuro vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction