ATP tennis predict — Sho Shimabukuro vs Hubert Hurkacz

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

30.73%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

69.27%

Average Odds

3.58 / 1.28

Market probability

26.34% / 73.66%

Why This Prediction?

Hubert Hurkacz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1805 vs 1625), a higher Elo rating (1832 vs 1715) and more wins on hard courts (172 vs 29).

Player Comparison

1715.0 Elo 1832.0

1624.6 Elo (surface) 1805.4

40 Wins 260

29 Wins (surface) 172

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.133 Dominance ratio 1.003

94 Rank 72

29.0 Age 29.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

58.1%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.9%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sho Shimabukuro 0 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Hubert Hurkacz #72

Sho Shimabukuro #94

6-2 6-4

2 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 1

62 Service Points 48

38 First Serve In 34

25 First Serve Won 28

10 Second Serve Won 10

2 Break Points Saved 2

5 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.6

Sho Shimabukuro vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction