ATP tennis predict — Sho Shimabukuro vs Arthur Rinderknech

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 1. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Sho Shimabukuro

Japan

41.44%

Arthur Rinderknech

France

58.56%

Average Odds

3.50 / 1.31

Market probability

27.23% / 72.77%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Rinderknech is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1736 vs 1609), a higher Elo rating (1711 vs 1695) and a stronger serve (68.3% vs 65.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1695.1 Elo 1710.6

1609.2 Elo (surface) 1735.9

40 Wins 151

29 Wins (surface) 87

7 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.259 Dominance ratio 0.947

87 Rank 29

29.1 Age 31.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Sho Shimabukuro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Arthur Rinderknech

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Arthur Rinderknech

1st Serve In %

58.1%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.9%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.6%

22.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.55

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.5%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.0%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.0%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.5%

46.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.17

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Sho Shimabukuro Arthur Rinderknech

Break Points Saved %

65.5%

59.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.1%

35.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

70.1%

73.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.7%

28.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Sho Shimabukuro 0 – 0 Arthur Rinderknech

Hard US Open · 2026-08-30

1. round

Arthur Rinderknech #29

Sho Shimabukuro #88

6-7 6-2 7-6 6-2

11 Aces 15

9 Double Faults 3

136 Service Points 115

78 First Serve In 67

56 First Serve Won 54

28 Second Serve Won 33

7 Break Points Saved 1

12 Break Points Faced 2

45 Winners 50

46 Unforced Errors 36

1.3 Average Odds 3.5

Sho Shimabukuro vs Arthur Rinderknech — Prediction