ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Philip Sekulic

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

59.97%

Philip Sekulic

Australia

40.03%

Average Odds

1.32 / 3.22

Market probability

70.93% / 29.07%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1658 vs 1524), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1593 vs 1535) and more wins on hard courts (34 vs 6).

Player Comparison

1658.3 Elo 1524.1

1593.3 Elo (surface) 1535.1

124 Wins (Challenger) 67

81 Wins (surface) 67

6 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.907 Dominance ratio 1.211

116 Rank 301

23.1 Age 22.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Philip Sekulic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-07-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Philip Sekulic

1st Serve In %

49.5%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

50.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

44.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

68.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

34.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

61.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.58

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Philip Sekulic

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

56.2%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

27.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

46.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

46.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Philip Sekulic

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-22

1. round

Shintaro Mochizuki #116

Philip Sekulic #301

6-3 4-6 6-1

3 Aces 0

9 Double Faults 6

76 Service Points 87

39 First Serve In 54

32 First Serve Won 33

16 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Philip Sekulic — Prediction