ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - quarterfinal 08:30

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

33.30%

Pavel Kotov

Russia

66.70%

Average Odds

2.18 / 1.63

Market probability

42.78% / 57.22%

Why This Prediction?

Pavel Kotov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1809 vs 1637), fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.20) and a stronger serve (61.5% vs 61.2% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1748.4 Elo 1772.0

1636.8 Elo (surface) 1809.4

56 Wins 82

38 Wins (surface) 50

10 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.022 Dominance ratio 0.878

125 Rank 188

23.3 Age 27.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Pavel Kotov

1st Serve In %

49.5%

65.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

83.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

66.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Pavel Kotov

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

48.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

36.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

74.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Pavel Kotov

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-23

qualification - quarterfinal

Shintaro Mochizuki #125

Pavel Kotov #188

7-5 6-3

0 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

21 First Serve Won 22

22 Second Serve Won 6

5 Break Points Saved 0

7 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Guangzhou 2 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Pavel Kotov #221

Shintaro Mochizuki #126

7-6 6-1

3 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 2

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

26 First Serve Won 31

9 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov — Prediction