ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Linang Xiao

ATP Hard Chengdu · qualification - round of 16 08:30

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

89.28%

Linang Xiao

China

10.72%

Average Odds

1.10 / 6.43

Market probability

85.39% / 14.61%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1746 vs 1336), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1633 vs 1330) and a stronger return game (44.7% vs 32.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1746.3 Elo 1336.1

1632.7 Elo (surface) 1330.0

55 Wins 1

37 Wins (surface) 1

9 Last 15 form 1

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.022 Dominance ratio 0.752

125 Rank 1004

23.3 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Linang Xiao

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Linang Xiao

1st Serve In %

49.5%

57.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

63.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

44.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

58.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

51.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Linang Xiao

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

45.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

56.7%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

37.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Linang Xiao

Hard Chengdu · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Shintaro Mochizuki #125

Linang Xiao #1004

7-5 4-6 7-5

3 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

38 First Serve Won 46

24 Second Serve Won 12

5 Break Points Saved 5

10 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 6.4

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

Q1

Linang Xiao #815

Shintaro Mochizuki #145

6-2 6-3

4 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 5

52 Service Points 49

36 First Serve In 25

25 First Serve Won 13

8 Second Serve Won 11

2 Break Points Saved 4

4 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Linang Xiao — Prediction