ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · SF

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

54.10%

Liam Draxl

Canada

45.90%

Average Odds

1.78 / 1.95

Market probability

52.28% / 47.72%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1676.9 Elo 1620.7

1619.9 Elo (surface) 1581.6

126 Wins (Challenger) 105

83 Wins (surface) 82

6 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.001 Dominance ratio 0.986

116 Rank 244

23.2 Age 24.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Liam Draxl

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Liam Draxl

1st Serve In %

49.5%

62.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

68.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

49.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

35.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

52.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

49.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

32.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Liam Draxl

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

51.4%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

47.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Liam Draxl

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-25

SF

Liam Draxl #244

Shintaro Mochizuki #116

6-0 6-3

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 1

60 Service Points 41

30 First Serve In 27

16 First Serve Won 21

12 Second Serve Won 8

8 Break Points Saved 2

13 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl — Prediction