ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Johannus Monday

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · QF

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

66.04%

Johannus Monday

Great Britain

33.96%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.39

Market probability

60.97% / 39.03%

Why This Prediction?

Shintaro Mochizuki is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1677 vs 1564), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1620 vs 1541) and a stronger return game (40.2% vs 27.9% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1676.9 Elo 1564.2

1619.9 Elo (surface) 1541.0

126 Wins (Challenger) 45

83 Wins (surface) 40

6 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.001 Dominance ratio 1.251

116 Rank 315

23.2 Age 24.5

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Johannus Monday

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Johannus Monday

1st Serve In %

49.5%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

74.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

41.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.69

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

64.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

76.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

50.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Johannus Monday

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

69.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 1 – 0 Johannus Monday

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-25

QF

Shintaro Mochizuki #116

Johannus Monday #315

6-4 7-6

7 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 4

75 Service Points 79

41 First Serve In 52

29 First Serve Won 33

17 Second Serve Won 9

1 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 12

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Grass Ilkley CH · 2025-06-09

R16

Shintaro Mochizuki #178

Johannus Monday #243

6-4 6-7(5) 6-3

10 Aces 11

6 Double Faults 2

112 Service Points 80

64 First Serve In 51

50 First Serve Won 42

27 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 0

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Johannus Monday — Prediction