ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Jaime Faria

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - round of 16 08:40

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

21.78%

Jaime Faria

Portugal

78.22%

Average Odds

2.84 / 1.40

Market probability

33.02% / 66.98%

Why This Prediction?

Jaime Faria is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1841 vs 1648), a higher Elo rating (1941 vs 1752) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 59.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1752.4 Elo 1940.8

1647.8 Elo (surface) 1841.0

57 Wins 47

39 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.022 Dominance ratio 1.200

120 Rank 61

23.3 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–2L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Jaime Faria

1st Serve In %

48.9%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.9%

55.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.9%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

57.1%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.41

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Jaime Faria

Break Points Saved %

58.0%

65.6%

Break Points Converted %

49.3%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 1 – 1 Jaime Faria

Grass Nottingham 2 CH · 2025-06-16

QF

Shintaro Mochizuki #164

Jaime Faria #119

6-2 6-0

2 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 2

42 Service Points 42

27 First Serve In 24

23 First Serve Won 13

7 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 6

2 Break Points Faced 11

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Oeiras CH · 2024-05-13

R32

Jaime Faria #233

Shintaro Mochizuki #157

6-2 6-4

6 Aces 1

6 Double Faults 5

68 Service Points 71

37 First Serve In 43

27 First Serve Won 28

16 Second Serve Won 8

9 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 8