ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Francesco Passaro

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

48.77%

Francesco Passaro

Italy

51.23%

Average Odds

1.80 / 1.92

Market probability

51.61% / 48.39%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1675.0 Elo 1699.8

1631.1 Elo (surface) 1696.7

55 Wins 45

37 Wins (surface) 24

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.101 Dominance ratio 1.159

117 Rank 207

23.2 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Francesco Passaro

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-16.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Francesco Passaro

1st Serve In %

49.5%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

71.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

49.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

25.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

34.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Francesco Passaro

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

48.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 1 Francesco Passaro

Hard US Open · 2026-08-28

qualification - 3. round

Francesco Passaro #207

Shintaro Mochizuki #117

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 4

5 Double Faults 3

67 Service Points 59

34 First Serve In 32

24 First Serve Won 25

13 Second Serve Won 14

3 Break Points Saved 2

7 Break Points Faced 3

20 Winners 11

29 Unforced Errors 19

1.9 Average Odds 1.8

Hard Tenerife 3 CH · 2023-02-06

R32

Francesco Passaro #109

Shintaro Mochizuki #300

6-3 6-4

2 Aces 0

2 Double Faults 3

65 Service Points 49

43 First Serve In 36

30 First Serve Won 20

12 Second Serve Won 6

4 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Francesco Passaro — Prediction