ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan

ATP Hard Montreal · 1. round

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

54.04%

Fabian Marozsan

Hungary

45.96%

Average Odds

2.56 / 1.50

Market probability

36.95% / 63.05%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1673.4 Elo 1731.5

1621.8 Elo (surface) 1642.7

53 Wins 85

35 Wins (surface) 48

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.938 Dominance ratio 0.904

114 Rank 55

23.2 Age 26.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Fabian Marozsan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Fabian Marozsan

1st Serve In %

49.5%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

50.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

41.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

64.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

57.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

33.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

57.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Fabian Marozsan

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

36.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Fabian Marozsan

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-04

1. round

Fabian Marozsan #61

Shintaro Mochizuki #117

6-4 6-3

0 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 2

56 Service Points 60

24 First Serve In 35

14 First Serve Won 23

15 Second Serve Won 15

4 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 5

8 Winners 11

43 Unforced Errors 34

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan — Prediction