ATP tennis predict — Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

47.26%

Duncan Chan

Canada

52.74%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.09

Market probability

69.75% / 30.25%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1665.9 Elo 1638.7

1605.0 Elo (surface) 1625.2

125 Wins (Challenger) 7

82 Wins (surface) 7

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.964 Dominance ratio 0.968

116 Rank 665

23.1 Age 21.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–3L · 78.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-06-03.

Duncan Chan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-15.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Duncan Chan

1st Serve In %

49.5%

48.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.8%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.2%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.5%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.4%

58.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

45.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

60.1%

51.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Shintaro Mochizuki Duncan Chan

Break Points Saved %

60.9%

57.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.0%

60.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

48.2%

55.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Shintaro Mochizuki 0 – 0 Duncan Chan

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-23

R16

Shintaro Mochizuki #116

Duncan Chan #665

6-2 2-6 6-4

0 Aces 4

6 Double Faults 3

77 Service Points 77

40 First Serve In 47

26 First Serve Won 30

20 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan — Prediction